• Placer.ai said that at McDonald’s, momentum was fueled by a holiday-themed “Grinch” Menu, which arrived on the heels of the fast-food company’s Boo Bucket merchandise drop in October.
• Dec. 1 was McDonald’s busiest week of 2025, and also delivered the largest year-over-year weekly visit increase, Placer.ai said.
• CEO Chris Kempczinski said the company remains cautious about the health of the U.S. consumer and top international markets and believes the pressures will continue well into 2026.

A look back at the last five years shows the restaurant industry has endured a turbulent run, weighed down by a pandemic, decades-high inflation, supply-chain disruptions, tariffs, and recurring public-health outbreaks that have kept operators on edge.

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Against that backdrop, McDonald’s stock offers an interesting contrast. Shares of the burger chain have posted gains for 11 consecutive years, and investors are hoping they will extend that winning streak into 2026. So far this year, McDonald’s shares are up more than 1%, even as cautious sentiment around restaurant-industry growth has lingered for a bit.

The challenges were especially evident in 2025, when consumers pulled back from dining out and opted to cook more at home to save money amid price increases linked to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs. That environment forced fast-food chains such as McDonald’s and Domino’s Pizza to compete aggressively on value, rolling out meal deals priced as low as $5 to drive traffic and order volumes.

McDonald’s, for the most part, benefited from stronger international sales alongside steady growth in the U.S., helping the stock climb nearly 8% last year. Still, it underperformed the broader market, with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the S&P 500, jumping more than 17% in 2025.

Traffic Slowdown

Spurring traffic has been a major concern for fast-food chains, including McDonald’s, as cost-conscious customers have preferred cooking at home to dining out, even at fast-food chains that offer lower prices.

According to data firm Placer.ai, everyday value became table stakes across limited service in 2025, with $5 meals, bundles, and loyalty pricing no longer serving as clear differentiators. “Unsurprisingly,” freebies and truly memorable discounts still drew crowds. 

For 2026, Placer.ai noted that discounting still works, but the offers most likely to truly motivate consumers are those that stand out from the everyday value consumers already expect. 

Placer.ai said that at McDonald’s, momentum was fueled by a holiday-themed “Grinch” Menu, which arrived on the heels of the fast food company’s Boo Bucket merchandise drop in October.

The Boo Buckets drove McDonald’s second- and third-largest annual visit spikes during the weeks of Oct. 20 and 27, and the Grinch Meal built on that lift, pushing visits higher yet during the week of Dec. 1 and sustaining momentum through the rest of the month, Placer.ai added.

Dec. 1 was McDonald’s busiest week of 2025, and also delivered the largest year-over-year weekly visit increase, Placer.ai said.

MCD CEO View

CEO Chris Kempczinski said in November that in the U.S., the company sees a bifurcated consumer base, with quick-service restaurant traffic (QSR) from lower-income consumers declining by nearly double digits in the third quarter, a trend that has persisted for about two years.

In contrast, QSR traffic growth among higher-income consumers remains strong, increasing by double digits in the quarter, he said. “We continue to remain cautious about the health of the consumer in the U.S. and our top international markets and believe the pressures will continue well into 2026,” Kempczinski added.

What Is Retail Thinking?

Retail sentiment on McDonald’s dipped to ‘neutral’ from ‘bullish’ compared to a day ago, with message volumes at ‘high’ levels, according to data from Stocktwits.

Shares of McDonald’s have gained 10% in the last 12 months while SPY has surged 21% during the same period.

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