Venezuela’s stock market surged by nearly 50% in a single session on January 6extending gains to about 67% over two trading daysas investors reacted to dramatic political developments and rising expectations of a potential economic reset in the crisis-hit nation.

The rally comes a day after the Caracas Stock Exchange jumped almost 17% on January 5following reports that President Nicolas Maduro was captured by the United States. The magnitude of the move suggests markets are aggressively pricing in the possibility of a political transitionwhich investors see as a prerequisite for long-delayed economic reforms.

Despite the eye-catching gains, Venezuela’s equity market remains extremely small and illiquid. The Caracas Stock Exchange (BVC)founded in 1947, is the smallest stock exchange in South Americawith active trading limited to roughly 15 companies. As a result, even modest capital flows can trigger outsized index movements.

Optimism has also spilled into Venezuela’s debt markets. Sovereign bonds and notes issued by state-run oil company PDVSA have rallied sharply on hopes of regime change and eventual debt restructuring. Prices of defaulted bonds have more than doubled in recent months, trading around 23–33 cents on the dollarwith some investors speculating that recovery values could rise further if a stable government emerges.

US President Donald Trump said the United States would oversee Venezuela until a leadership transition is arranged, with an emphasis on restoring oil infrastructure. However, uncertainty remains high. Venezuela still faces about $154 billion in defaulted obligationsand analysts note that any restructuring is unlikely until a permanent government is in place.

Political signals have also been mixed. While Trump said US officials had been in contact with Vice President Delcy Rodriguezshe later publicly called for Maduro’s return, underlining that risks remain elevated despite the historic market rally.