Economist Peter Schiff on Friday stated that while bullion’s rise has grabbed headlines, the more overlooked story lies in gold mining equities.
In a research note, Schiff noted that gold prices have surged past $5,000 an ounce and largely held that ground since late January, marking a dramatic climb. He added that foreign central banks have been shifting reserves out of U.S. dollars and into bullion, fueling the rally and driving prices sharply higher over the past two years.
While gold’s rise has grabbed headlines, Schiff contends the more overlooked story lies in gold miners’ stocks. Production expenses have remained relatively stable, he says, even as realized selling prices have climbed to historic levels.
As a result, gold miners are expanding profit margins and earnings that outpace internal forecasts. Several debt-free producers with strong balance sheets have posted significant share gains, in some cases multiplying several times over.
Yet Schiff maintains many still trade at modest forward earnings multiples, reflecting what he views as a disconnect between operational performance and market valuation.
Despite record cash generation, mining stocks often retreat when gold prices experience even brief pullbacks. Schiff said that this reaction suggests investors doubt the durability of elevated prices, even as central bank demand remains high.
“If you understand the long term trend—that gold’s main demand is coming from central banks trading their dollars for gold as a strategic reserve—you understand how unlikely that kind of pullback is.”
-Peter Schiff, Economist
He also noted that silver and platinum producers are experiencing margin expansion amid a broad rally in precious metals.
According to The Wall Street Journal report citing Bank of America’s February Global Fund Manager Survey, investors expect gold to peak at about $6,200 per ounce based on the weighted average forecast.
Shares of gold miners Newmont Corp. (NEM) and Barrick Gold (B) have surged over 208% and 160% in the last 12 months.
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