The heat is not completely gone yet and worries about monsoon have started. India Meteorological Department (India Meteorological Department) said in April 2026 that the rainfall between June and September this year is going to be below normal. Such an estimate has come for the first time in three years. The reason for this is El Nino. This is a seasonal phenomenon that occurs far away in the ocean but its impact reaches your plate here. There will be less rain, less harvest and things will become more expensive in the market.

According to the Meteorological Department, this year the rainfall will be only 92% of the previous average. The rainfall will be much less than it should be and there is a 35% chance that the situation will get worse, that is, a drought-like situation may occur. About 70% of the farms in India are dependent on rain. There is no canal or tube well, irrigation is done only with rain water, so when the water does not fall, the farmer’s crop gets spoiled and things become expensive in the market.

Why is El Nino dangerous?

Increase of El Nino means weakening of monsoon. The winds that bring rain change their path or become weak due to El Nino. The result is that the fields do not get as much water as they should. This year the Meteorological Department says that the effect of El Nino will be maximum from July to September and these are the three months when crops grow in the fields and they need the most water.

What will be expensive?

Pulses are the first to take a hit. Last time whenever there was such a season, the price of pulses was the first to rise. Apart from this, edible oil can also become expensive. Crops like soybean and groundnut are completely dependent on rain. Less water means lower yields, and lower yields mean expensive oil. Solvent Extractors Association of India has said that India already imports a lot of edible oil from outside. If less is made in the country then more will have to be imported and that too at a higher price. India takes 35% of its fertilizers from Gulf countries. There is already tension there and there is fear of shortage of fertilizers and inflation.

What is the Good News?

This year the mustard crop has been fine. The government has considerable stock of wheat and rice which can be released into the market if needed. Rainfall is expected to be normal in the northeastern and southern parts of the country. If the Meteorological Department will give another update at the end of May, then there is danger at the moment but how big it will be will be known in June-July. If rain does not come at the right time, the prices of pulses, vegetables and oil will increase.