• Saylor signaled another Bitcoin buy with his trademark "we're gonna need more charts" post on Sunday.
• Strategy's mNAV fell below 1, challenging the premium that fueled its Bitcoin acquisition strategy.
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a record $1.7 billion weekly outflow, marking a seventh straight week of withdrawals.

Bitcoin (BTC) is set for its biggest monthly loss since June 2022, with prices down nearly 19% as investors continue to pull money from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs at a record pace, adding pressure on the world's largest cryptocurrency. The selloff has not deterred Michael Saylor, who again hinted that Strategy (MSTR) would add more Bitcoin despite growing pressure on the financing model that fueled its buying spree. 

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Record ETF Outflows Signal Institutional Retreat 

The signal landed during the heaviest stretch of institutional selling since US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) launched in January, 2024. 

According to SoSoValue data, the funds shed over $1.7 billion last week, their largest weekly outflow on record. It was also the seventh consecutive week of net outflows, the longest such streak in the funds' history.

Bitcoin spent the week hovering near $60,000, briefly sliding to around $58,100 before recovering. Many analysts noted that a semiconductor-led risk-off move dragged the cryptocurrency lower.

Strategy Doubles Down Despite Mounting Pressure 

Saylor hinted on Sunday, posting on X, "we're gonna need more charts,” even as the conditions underpinning the company's Bitcoin-buying model showed fresh strain.

Saylor signaled the firm’s additional buys, just days after Strategy's market-to-net-asset-value (mNAV) ratio fell below 1 for the first time in the company's history, a level that means the market is no longer willing to pay more for its shares than the Bitcoin on its balance sheet. 

The premium had allowed the firm to raise capital and buy more BTC, and its erosion has made this harder, particularly through common stock issuance.

The renewed buying signal does little to resolve the central question facing Strategy: whether it can service its dividend obligations and continue raising capital without selling Bitcoin. Further, the company is facing legal scrutiny, with the Rosen Law Firm investigating potential securities class-action claims on behalf of Strategy investors.

Is Bitcoin Near A Bottom?

CryptoQuant analyst Moreno flagged Bitcoin's "first bottoming flag," an early on-chain sign of a deeper market clean-up. 

On-chain metrics indicate that the Bitcoin UTXO Block P/L Count Ratio, which measures blocks in profit versus loss, has reached a level historically observed during bottoming processes. But that alone doesn’t validate a bottom, the analysis said. 

The metric’s 365-day moving average would need to fall much more aggressively to signal a proper reset. Short squeezes are still possible but not to be confused with structural recovery, said Moreno.

Bitcoin’s price was down by 0.8% during the past 24 hours. On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment around BTC remained in the ‘neutral’ zone, while chatter around it stayed at ‘normal’ levels over the past day. 

Read also: Why Bitcoin Is Falling Today: BTC Selloff Tracks Tech Correction, Analysts Call It A Credit Unwind

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